2015年5月IB经济SL真题下载-Paper2
1. Study the extract below and answer the questions that follow.
Latvia to join the eurozone monetary union
（1）Latvia will become the 18th country to adopt the euro after being approved for membership by the European Commission. The country has met the criteria for eurozone membership, including low inflation, low long-term interest rates, a stable exchange rate, low public debt and low budget deficits.
（2）Latvia joined the European Union (EU) customs union in 2004. This resulted in a large increase in the availability of credit and strong economic growth in Latvia. However, the 2008 global financial crisis resulted in the collapse of one of its leading banks and massive economic instability. Economic output fell by about 20 % and Latvia had to accept a bailout (loans) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU.
（3）Latvia kept the lat (the Latvian currency) pegged to the euro throughout the crisis. At the time, some economists argued that devaluation would have been a better way to improve the economy. However, Latvia followed the path of other countries such as Greece and Ireland, and chose to improve competitiveness through austerity measures. This involved increasing direct taxes and cutting government spending and public sector wages.
（4）By late 2010, the economy was growing again and Latvia had repaid the loans to the IMF and the EU. In 2012, the economy expanded by 5.6 %, the fastest of any country in the EU, although output was still 12 % below its pre-crisis peak. In addition unemployment was falling, but it remained high at 12.4 %.
（5）For Latvia, which shares a border with Russia, the attraction of the euro is about economics and security. Entering the eurozone in January 2014 is part of a process of shifting away from the influence of Russia, and following its northern neighbour Estonia which joined the eurozone in 2011. Lithuania hopes to join the eurozone in 2015.
（6）Public support for joining the eurozone has been low. Evidence from one survey suggests that a small majority of Latvia’s population opposes membership, fearing that prices will rise and Latvians will be drawn into the problems facing Europe’s struggling economies.
（7）Nonetheless, there are signs that support is growing. The Latvian prime minister said that “switching to the euro will help economic growth and bring increased foreign investment. Unlike countries that can afford to ignore the euro and additional integration, Latvia cannot easily stand on its own. This is good news, not only for Latvia, but also for the eurozone. It shows that there is still confidence in the single currency”.
(a) (i) Define the term customs union indicated in bold in the text (paragraph （2）).
(ii) Define the term direct taxes indicated in bold in the text (paragraph （3）).
(b) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how devaluation of the lat (the Latvian currency) might have been used to improve the Latvian economy during the financial crisis (paragraph （3）).
(c) Using a production possibilities curve (PPC) diagram, explain the change in Latvia’s economy from 2008 to 2012 (paragraphs （2） and （4）).
(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the possible impact of Latvia joining the eurozone.
2. Study the extract below and answer the questions that follow.
Brazil’s currency slides to new low
（1）In August 2013, the exchange rate of Brazil’s currency, the real, fell to its lowest level against the United States dollar (US$) since February 2009 because of the poor performance of its economy. This fall is expected to continue, at least in the short term.
（2）Much of the weakness of the real is due to the possibility that the US central bank may soon start to reverse its easy monetary policy as a result of increased growth in the US. There is speculation that the US interest rate might rise at some point in the future. The consequence of this is that money is leaving developing economies such as Brazil.
（3）Brazil’s central bank tried to fight the outflows by raising interest rates three times in 2013 to a high of 9 % and injecting US$7.6 billion into the foreign exchange market in one week. Even with such interventions, the value of the real was down by more than 10 %. The central bank defends its actions, saying that its interventions prevented even larger falls in the value of the currency.
（4）A weaker currency poses additional problems for the central bank in the form of imported inflation. The speed of the real’s decline creates problems for companies, which struggle to make plans when they do not know where the currency will be in the future.
（5）In contrast, the finance minister sees a possible advantage to a weaker currency. “The new exchange rate makes Brazil more competitive,” the minister told reporters after meeting with leading business people. He acknowledged, however, that the sudden swings in the currency “are not positive for the economy”.
（6）Analysts say that the value of the real is unlikely to increase until the economic outlook improves. Forecasters expect economic growth to remain low at 2.2 % in 2013. This is slightly up from the previous year, but much lower than the 7.5 % growth in 2010. Brazil is also concerned about inflation, which is at an annual rate of 6.3 %. This is near the top of the government’s target range and is another reason why the central bank has raised interest rates.
（7）Brazil also moved from a US$9.9 billion trade surplus in 2012 to a US$5 billion trade deficit in 2013, contributing to the economy’s problems. Brazil’s current account deficit has increased significantly. The combination of these economic events presents difficult problems for policy makers.
(a) (i) Define the term exchange rate indicated in bold in the text (paragraph (1).
(ii) Define the term current account deficit indicated in bold in the text (paragraph (7)).
(b) Using an exchange rate diagram, explain how the speculation that the US central bank may change its monetary policy has affected the value of the Brazilian real (paragraph (2)).
(c) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how the move from a trade surplus to a trade deficit could harm the Brazilian economy (paragraph (7)).
(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the possible consequences for the Brazilian economy of the fall in the value of the Brazilian real.
2015年5月IB经济SL真题余下省略！
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