2016年11月IB经济SL真题下载-Paper2
1. Study the extract below and answer the questions that follow.
New Zealand dollar overvalued
（1）The New Zealand finance minister said the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar (NZD), is “unsustainably high; it is somewhere between 10 % to 15 % overvalued”.
（2）The NZD had been near its record high against the US dollar before weakening last week on slower inflation figures and a fall in dairy prices. The NZD has gained about 6 % so far this year.
（3） However, the finance minister said that New Zealand exporters had developed strength because of the high currency. “New Zealand is actually in reasonably good shape,” he said. “We have had an export sector operating with a strong exchange rate now for five or six years and that has had an impact on efficiency.”
（4）An economist said recently that the central bank might consider intervening in the currency market to achieve a depreciation in the value of the NZD.
（5）The Reserve Bank (central bank) governor raised the official interest rate for the fourth time this year to 3.5 % at a time when other major economies have their rates at record low levels.
（6）He said that, “Encouragingly, the economy appears to be adjusting to the monetary policy tightening that has taken place since the start of the year. It is important that inflation expectations remain contained. This interest rate increase will help keep future average inflation near the 2 % target and ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained”.
（7）New Zealand’s economy is expected to grow at an annual pace of 3.7 % over 2014. New Zealand government figures showed a monthly trade (in goods) surplus of $247 million in June 2014 compared to $371 million in June 2013. The annual trade (in goods) balance turned to a surplus of $1.2 billion from a deficit of $819 million a year earlier.
（8）Global demand for New Zealand dairy products has been a key support for the country’s exports over the past 18 months, though prices have dropped this year with increased supply.
(a) (i) Define the term depreciation indicated in bold in the text (paragraph （4）).
(ii) Define the term monetary policy indicated in bold in the text (paragraph （6）).
(b) Using an exchange rate diagram, explain how the increase in the official interest rate to 3.5 % is likely to affect the value of the New Zealand dollar (paragraph （5）).
(c) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain how “monetary policy tightening” may affect a country’s inflation rate (paragraph （6）).
(d) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, discuss the possible economic consequences of an overvalued New Zealand dollar on the New Zealand economy.
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